cp30's review against another edition

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3.0

The book summarized and capsulized ways in which we should think about making decisions. I received a lesson in how outcomes do not always mean you made good decisions. More often good results mean you were lucky and the right outcome happened. She does make very good points about how to analyze decisions and that part was the most beneficial.

scotttwx's review against another edition

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challenging informative reflective medium-paced

4.25

Good book about the way we make decisions. Forces you to think in new and uncomfortable, but still important, ways.

fatbookishfemme's review against another edition

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4.0

Could've been shorter - the first half of this book was really amazing, the second was more theoretical and example-driven arguments about political bias

shekispeaks's review against another edition

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1.0

The book spends a lot of time setting up the premise and very little explaining the techniques. There is not much content here to be a book. The analogies are based a lot on pop culture and football. They might be based on research but I could not connect to all the examples / metaphors provided in the book.

Skip it IMHO

diggylifts's review against another edition

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hopeful informative reflective slow-paced

5.0

Thinking in Bets emphasizes the importance of differentiating between decision quality and outcomes, highlighting the role of uncertainty and luck in shaping perceptions.  It encourages a shift from valuing results to valuing the decision-making process, promoting a more objective and rational approach to decision-making.  By adopting a betting mindset, individuals can foster a culture of learning, critical thinking, and open-mindedness, ultimately leading to better decision-making and improved outcomes.

Interesting concepts and quotes 
  • Resulting: Fall victim to valuing the result more than the decision
  • Thinking Processes: Distinguish between System 1 (reflexive) and System 2 (deliberative) thinking, emphasizing the importance of deliberate thought in decision-making.
  • 100% of our bad outcomes aren’t because we got unlucky and 100% of our good outcomes aren’t because we are so awesome. Yet that is how we process the future as it unfolds.
  • Moving regret to the front of our decisions (Influences better decision-making and self-compassion.)
  • Backcasting: Reverse engineering from an imagined future with a positive outcome can help plan the steps to get there.
  • Premortem: Visualization of a future with a bad outcome and planning contingency plan if things don’t go well

escaped_moment's review against another edition

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funny informative inspiring lighthearted reflective

2.75

billy218's review against another edition

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4.0

Great, easy read that offers some perspective in our decision making processes. At times I felt it was a little repetitive and could've probably been a little shorter, but overall a good read.

maryjohanna's review against another edition

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3.0

Finding lots of examples of how our natures set up biases but more than half way in now, not reading any correction strategies

lubieniebieski's review against another edition

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3.0

Good book! Even though it was not a 5 star read for me it still contains a lot of wisdom and might be a good read if you would like to learn more about biases and how they affect your decision-making process.

Things I'm going to remember for the future:
* Good outcome != good decision, bad outcome != bad decision
* There's no certainty only probability (90% chance still means that you can fail 10% of the times)
* Lead with assent. Listen for the things you agree with, state those and be specific, and then follow with “and” instead of “but”
* Before you make a decision, ask yourself how you will feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years if you made it.
* Don’t make decisions based on immediate gratification—redefine happiness in light of a lifetime goal rather than the immediate. Our problem is that we’re ticker watchers of our entire lives. Happiness is not best measured by looking at the ticker, zooming in and magnifying moment-by-moment or day-by-day movements. The problem in all these situations is that our in-the-moment emotions affect the quality of the decisions we make in those moments, and we are very willing to make decisions when we are not emotionally fit to do so.
* Backcasting: Working backward from a positive future
* Pre-mortem. Despite the popular wisdom that we achieve success through positive visualization, it turns out that incorporating negative visualization makes us more likely to achieve our goals.
While backcasting imagines a positive future, a pre-mortem imagines a negative one.
* Red team concept. After 9/11, the CIA created “red teams” that are dedicated to arguing against the intelligence community’s conventional wisdom and spotting flaws in logic and analysis.

ashbask's review against another edition

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informative reflective fast-paced

3.5