Scan barcode
A review by lubieniebieski
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke
3.0
Good book! Even though it was not a 5 star read for me it still contains a lot of wisdom and might be a good read if you would like to learn more about biases and how they affect your decision-making process.
Things I'm going to remember for the future:
* Good outcome != good decision, bad outcome != bad decision
* There's no certainty only probability (90% chance still means that you can fail 10% of the times)
* Lead with assent. Listen for the things you agree with, state those and be specific, and then follow with “and” instead of “but”
* Before you make a decision, ask yourself how you will feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years if you made it.
* Don’t make decisions based on immediate gratification—redefine happiness in light of a lifetime goal rather than the immediate. Our problem is that we’re ticker watchers of our entire lives. Happiness is not best measured by looking at the ticker, zooming in and magnifying moment-by-moment or day-by-day movements. The problem in all these situations is that our in-the-moment emotions affect the quality of the decisions we make in those moments, and we are very willing to make decisions when we are not emotionally fit to do so.
* Backcasting: Working backward from a positive future
* Pre-mortem. Despite the popular wisdom that we achieve success through positive visualization, it turns out that incorporating negative visualization makes us more likely to achieve our goals.
While backcasting imagines a positive future, a pre-mortem imagines a negative one.
* Red team concept. After 9/11, the CIA created “red teams” that are dedicated to arguing against the intelligence community’s conventional wisdom and spotting flaws in logic and analysis.
Things I'm going to remember for the future:
* Good outcome != good decision, bad outcome != bad decision
* There's no certainty only probability (90% chance still means that you can fail 10% of the times)
* Lead with assent. Listen for the things you agree with, state those and be specific, and then follow with “and” instead of “but”
* Before you make a decision, ask yourself how you will feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years if you made it.
* Don’t make decisions based on immediate gratification—redefine happiness in light of a lifetime goal rather than the immediate. Our problem is that we’re ticker watchers of our entire lives. Happiness is not best measured by looking at the ticker, zooming in and magnifying moment-by-moment or day-by-day movements. The problem in all these situations is that our in-the-moment emotions affect the quality of the decisions we make in those moments, and we are very willing to make decisions when we are not emotionally fit to do so.
* Backcasting: Working backward from a positive future
* Pre-mortem. Despite the popular wisdom that we achieve success through positive visualization, it turns out that incorporating negative visualization makes us more likely to achieve our goals.
While backcasting imagines a positive future, a pre-mortem imagines a negative one.
* Red team concept. After 9/11, the CIA created “red teams” that are dedicated to arguing against the intelligence community’s conventional wisdom and spotting flaws in logic and analysis.