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A review by diggylifts
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke
hopeful
informative
reflective
slow-paced
5.0
Thinking in Bets emphasizes the importance of differentiating between decision quality and outcomes, highlighting the role of uncertainty and luck in shaping perceptions. It encourages a shift from valuing results to valuing the decision-making process, promoting a more objective and rational approach to decision-making. By adopting a betting mindset, individuals can foster a culture of learning, critical thinking, and open-mindedness, ultimately leading to better decision-making and improved outcomes.
- Resulting: Fall victim to valuing the result more than the decision
- Thinking Processes: Distinguish between System 1 (reflexive) and System 2 (deliberative) thinking, emphasizing the importance of deliberate thought in decision-making.
- 100% of our bad outcomes aren’t because we got unlucky and 100% of our good outcomes aren’t because we are so awesome. Yet that is how we process the future as it unfolds.
- Moving regret to the front of our decisions (Influences better decision-making and self-compassion.)
- Backcasting: Reverse engineering from an imagined future with a positive outcome can help plan the steps to get there.
- Premortem: Visualization of a future with a bad outcome and planning contingency plan if things don’t go well