A review by nicki_j
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke

4.0

I do not watch professional poker so I was unfamiliar with Annie Duke before this book. She narrated the audio book and I thought she was delightful. Duke has an unconventional background for a poker player - an academic and PhD candidate. I really liked the premise of the book and the excellent examples. My only issue is applicability to real life. For example, when Pete Carroll made the call that led to the Seahawks losing the Super bowl, Duke could prove that it was the best decision in the situation because statistically, the play would have been successful more times than the alternatives. But football is a game, with a set of rules, inside a narrow universe and she had years of data to rely on. How do you apply that analysis to something like deciding to take a new job, when you have no data or very few similar experiences with completely different variables? She does offer some general suggestions to help (like having people who are willing and eager to be contrarian to your perspective) but I don't think the book easily translates to real life.